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May 08, 2007

Olmert Survives -- But For How Long?

He came into office under the worst of circumstances, and failed to crush those who attacked his country when he had the chance. Now his nation's people reject him. So while Ehud Olmert survived a no confidence vote yesterday, how much longer can he continue to hold onto the office of prime minister?

Israel’s prime minister, Ehud Olmert, survived three no-confidence votes against his government on Monday, part of the political fallout from a harsh report on the country’s leadership during last summer’s war in Lebanon.

Mr. Olmert’s governing coalition affords him a large majority in the 120-seat Parliament, and the no-confidence motions were all rejected by comfortable margins. Nevertheless, the results revealed cracks in support from Parliament members belonging to the coalition: at least 16 of them were either absent, voted no confidence or abstained.

The motions were brought on the opening day of the Parliament’s summer session by rightist, leftist and religious opposition parties.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of the rightist Likud Party, called for new elections and told the cabinet, which has pledged to carry out the recommendations of the war report: “You are not the solution. You are the problem.”

The leader of the leftist Meretz Party, Yossi Beilin, said the lack of confidence had penetrated the public, the Parliament and even Mr. Olmert’s party, Kadima. Mr. Beilin told the Parliament that a minister in Kadima, whom he did not identify, had told him that the prime minister “poses a national danger to Israel.”

Furthermore, the Labor Party, which sits in the coalition, is holding primaries for the party leadership in late May, and several contenders have already stated their intention to taking the party out of the coalition if Mr. Olmert remains in office.

The situation remains murky for the Kadima-led government. If Olmert leaves office, will his party be able to continue to lead a coalition that allows some member to hold the top spot? Or are new elections -- which might well return Netanyahu to power -- the likely outcome. The situation is quite murky at this point, but I doubt that the the current government will survive the month.





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