It is hard to know where to begin with this one. it is hard to know whether this is a positive step in the War on Terror or a negative one on the Road to Democracy. Regardless, the situation in Pakistan is troubling.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf on Saturday declared emergency rule, suspended the constitution and fired the country's chief justice, extraordinary steps that gave him almost absolute power in a country that he described as spinning out of control.

The government deployed hundreds of army rangers on the streets of Islamabad, arrested some opposition figures and blacked out private television news stations across the country.

For Musharraf, who has become deeply unpopular in recent months, the moves represented a drastic gamble and came despite intense appeals from the United States and other Western allies to stay within the bounds of the Pakistani constitution.

In an emergency order, Musharraf cited rising extremism and a judiciary "at cross purposes" with the rest of the government as reasons for the moves. But the timing suggested he was also attempting to extend his rule as both president and army chief. The Supreme Court had been reviewing a challenge to his candidacy for another presidential term, and was expected to rule as early as next week.

The court made a defiant but ultimately unsuccessful attempt Saturday to block Musharraf's implementation of emergency rule; in response, seven dissident justices were immediately removed from the bench. Musharraf said the Parliament, where he holds a commanding majority, would remain intact.

Members of Pakistan's fragmented political opposition condemned Musharraf for moves they said effectively put the country under martial law, and they vowed to take to the streets in protest. Former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, a longtime political rival of Musharraf's, immediately flew back to the country from a trip to the United Arab Emirates.

It is hard to know what to make of this situation. Obviously, I do not support any move that suppresses a free press. Neither do I support any move that subverts the judiciary -- in particular at a time when that judiciary is about to rule Musharraf ineligible to run for President.

But at the same time, the political crisis that the country has been facing for some time is a great one. The courts have undermined the nation's efforts to fight terrorists in Pakistan itself. The Supreme Court itself is tinged with the same sort of Islamist ideology that gives rise to groups like the Taliban and al-Qaeda. And that judiciary has seemed intent upon frustrating any action taken by Mussharraf -- operating almost as an opposition party rather than a neutral arbiter of the law.

I find the fact that Benazir Bhutto happened to be out of the country when this move took place to be rather intriguing. She had left suddenly last week to visit her ailing mother -- and rushed back to make a condemnation of the decree as soon as it was issued. Is the timing coincidental? Or is it part of the political dance that she and the general have been engaged in for some time -- especially since Musharraf's move prevents a ruling that she must stand trial on official corruption charges.

The emergency comes shortly before a series of petitions were to be heard by the Pakistani supreme court. These petitions would have questioned: Musharraf's standing to run for president in the forthcoming elections while staying in uniform; the waiving of the corruption charges against former prime minister Benazir Bhutto; and the legality of Musharraf's re-exiling of former conservative prime minister Nawaz Sharif. The date for argument was set for Friday, November 3, but was recently moved to the November 5 and 6. Obviously, in this Machiavellian stroke, Musharraf has pre-empted the hearing.

Musarraf indicates that he will not allow his nation to commit suicide, and went so far as to equate himself with Lincoln in his willingness to overlook elements of the nation's constitution in order to preserve the nation. I don't know that I'm comfortable with that analogy, but The Guardian's Ali Eteraz does note that he does appear committed to moving towards democracy.

For the time being, though, it appears that Musharraf is committed to the forthcoming parliamentary elections. In his just-concluded speech to the country he outlined his three-step programme for democracy. Stage 1 was from 1999 to 2001 when he ran the government directly. During stage 2, from 2001 to 2007, everyone was elected except for the president, and, in fact, it was the first time that the national, provincial and local bodies were all composed of elected officials. Stage 3 is ongoing now, with the assemblies finishing their tenure on November 15, followed by presidential elections (in which he will run) and then general assembly elections (which are expected to anoint Benazir Bhutto as prime minister).

But I don't know how that analysis an be squared with this development.

Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said the extraordinary measures would remain in place "as long as it is necessary." He also said parliamentary elections could be postponed up to a year, but no such decision had been made.

Aziz also said that up to 500 opposition activists had been arrested in the last 24 hours.

Among those detained were Javed Hashmi, the acting president of the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif; cricket star-turned politician, Imran Khan; Asma Jehangir, chairman of the independent Human Rights Commission of Pakistan; and Hamid Gul, former chief of the main intelligence agency and a staunch critic of Musharraf's support for the U.S.-led war on terror.

So for me, a key question will be how long these opposition leaders are held, and how long elections are delayed. Indeed, I'd argue the legitimacy of the entire Pakistani political system -- and the government of a nation with nuclear arms -- depends upon those very issues.

And so I will watch -- and pray.

An incredible round-up can be found at The Agonist.

H/T Malkin, Captain's Quarters, Counterterrorism Blog, Hot Air

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