Mitt and Rudy are essentially tied, with Huckabee within the margin of error of the two front-runners.

After holding a double-digit advantage over his nearest rivals just six weeks ago, the former New York City mayor now is tied nationally with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 20% among Republicans, just slightly ahead of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 17% and Arizona Sen. John McCain at 14%. Other polls show Mr. Giuliani's lead shrinking in Florida, one of the states he has built his strategy around.

With the poll's margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points, that puts Mr. Huckabee, who had only single-digit support in the previous poll in early November, within striking distance of the leaders. Mr. Romney's national support also has nearly doubled.

On the other hand, Huckabee leads in Iowa, so that could really shake matters up going into New Hampshire and South Carolina. And in a shift that may bode well for Romney, voters are now more concerned about the economy than about Iraq -- and Mitt's business experience will be a plus for him there.

My guess -- we may see a floor fight at the GOP convention, and a brokered ticket. My question is whether the resulting publicity will be a positive or negative thing for the GOP.