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January 02, 2008

GOP INcreasing, Dems DEcreasing?

Well, that's what the Rasmussen poll is saying.

The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans jumped nearly two percentage points in December to 34.2%. That’s the largest market share for the Republican brand in nearly two years, since January 2006 (see history from January 2004 to present).

At the same time, the number of Democrats fell to 36.3%. That’s down a point compared to a month ago. During 2007, the number of Democrats has ranged from a low of 35.9% in July to a high of 37.8% in February.

These results are based upon tracking surveys of 15,000 adults per month. The margin of sampling error is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.

And there appears to be a correlation between these changes and certain other developments. As support for the war has increased, so has the number of people identifying as Republican. On the other hand, the partisan advanteage for Democrats has decreased by 2/3 since they took over control of Congress year ago. And given the shrinking number of self-identified independents, it may be that we are seeing the return of the 2006 prodigals to the GOP and a reestablishment of normal party identification patterns.

One possible conclusion -- the more Americans see of Democrat governance, the less they like it. That party's record of negativity and failure would therefore seem likely to hurt it moving into the November elections.

H/T Captain's Quarters, Michelle Malkin, Betsy Newmark


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