Rhymes With Right - Some Thoughts On Iowa

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January 04, 2008

Some Thoughts On Iowa

Obama and Huckabee. I can't say I'm surprised by those results.

What is surprising, though, is the margins and the positioning of candidates below the winners.

Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, a first-term Democratic senator trying to become the nation’s first African-American president, rolled to victory in the Iowa caucuses on Thursday night, lifted by a record turnout of voters who embraced his promise of change.
* * *

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas who was barely a blip on the national scene just two months ago, defeated Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, delivering a serious setback to Mr. Romney’s high-spending campaign and putting pressure on Mr. Romney to win in New Hampshire next Tuesday.

I expected an Obama win in Iowa for months, and for at least the last three weeks have seen the handwriting on the wall for Huckabee. The real question is, therefore what the results below show us.

Republicans:

Mitt's loss by 9 percentage points is rather disheartening to me. His strategy has been to win both Iowa and New Hampshire to start himself on the path to victory. Now New Hampshire is a "must win" for him -- and South Carolina becomes critical as well. But as has been pointed out, Reagan lost Iowa in 1980.

Fred Thompson's finish is important, because it does keep him alive -- maybe. I wonder, though, how much yesterday's wihdrawal rumor hurt him -- and benefited Huckabee.

McCain lives to fight another day -- especially if he gets that endorsement from Fred that was rumored and denied yesterday.

Ron Paul impressed me with a 10% finish. However, I don't think he can sustain that sort of finish in states with primaries, where registering one's preference is much easier than in a caucus.

Rudy Giuliani was even more anemic than I expected. Is his national support this weak, or is it a sign of how he was hurt by ignoring Iowa?

Democrats:

A virtual tie between John Edwards and Hillary Clinton. Does this signal that Hillary is not the odds-on favorite that the media has been painting her as for the last year or so? Could 2009 find her still in the US Senate, having watched the race as an also-ran? Maybe, but I don't think so. More likely, though, is this being a much tougher fight than expected.

Richardson. Sigh! I'm mystified why the Dems don't like this guy with his record of accomplishment. Does this showing mean he won't even make it on to the national ticket as VP?

The rest -- I've commented on the two withdrawals. My guess is that Kucinich will stay in until the bitter end -- what does he have to lose, having surrendered his dignity long ago?

New Hampshire is Tuesday -- should be interesting.

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Comments on Some Thoughts On Iowa

Obama for president

If he can win in Iowa and do well in New Hampshire with Independent support, Obama will have earned the opportunity for a final appeal to Democrats. As he does so, he will undoubtedly tout his then-proven ability to attract Independents and attract new voters into the process. That is why Clinton’s status as frontrunner will be more vulnerable.

Carlos Menéndez
http://www.segurosmagazine.es

|| Posted by creditos, January 4, 2008 05:31 AM ||

I feel like the kid in the back seat of the car, "Are we there yet?" is all I can think about. This will go on and on and on, Can't wait till it's over.

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The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 01/04/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...so check back often.

|| Posted by David M, January 4, 2008 09:51 AM ||

Don't count Hillary out yet. The incredibly viscious Clinton Attack Machine hasn't gotten into full swing yet. The "Long Knives" are about to come out, a fact that Obama is going to learn very quickly.

Bill Clinton placed 4th in Iowa back in '92, and we all know how that turned out.

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