Well, let's set aside the delegate totals, where Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are running neck and neck. There really is more to make folks question whether the winds of change are really blowing.
First, there is the money issue.
Our colleague Patrick Healy tells us that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, facing big primaries against her rival Senator Barack Obama in places like Ohio and Texas, is weighing whether to lend her campaign money.And in a quick update, her campaign has just confirmed that she’d already lent her coffers $5 million of her own money in late January.
Compare this to the success being had by Obama in the money department.
Barack Obama’s campaign is on track to raise another $30 million in February, sources close to the Illinois senator say, while Hillary Rodham Clinton’s spokesman revealed Wednesday that she had loaned her campaign $5 million.Insiders in both campaigns say the growing financial disparity virtually ensures that Obama will be able to significantly outspend Clinton in the critical primaries to come.
Money means something -- and for all the arguments that it signals corruption, what it usually signals is popular support, especially when it is coming from so many donors new to political giving.
How significant is the difference? Hillary's staff is giving up their paychecks. That is never a good sign from where I sit -- it means that money has become tight enough that the message is in danger of not getting out at all -- and that the campaign cannot be sustained long term.
So what this means is that going into a number of states where Barack Obama may have an advantage, Hillary Clinton is lacking the cash to effectively spread her message and turn some of the swing voters her way. And with Obama surging everywhere and showing great momentum by virtually every indicator, Hillary needs to score some quick victories in the next week to avoid becoming the underdog for the first time in a campaign that could run all the way to the convention, despite the best efforts of Howard Dean to avoid that possibility.
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