While the Democrat has the early lead of only 65 votes, this one is not over yet.

Venture capitalist Scott Murphy (D) holds a 65-vote lead over state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco (R) in a special election in Upstate New York, a race cast as an early referendum on President Obama's economic stimulus package.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Murphy had 77,344 votes to Tedisco's 77,279. Somewhere between 6,000 and 10,000 military and absentee ballots remain uncounted, according to the Associated Press, and overseas absentee ballots will continue be accepted until April 13. In short, no winner will be declared any time soon.

Let's think about this one. This district leans Republican, though a Democrat has won in recent elections. The current margin with today's votes counted is only about 4/100ths of a percentage point. And there are literally thousands of ballots yet to be counted from men and women in uniform -- votes that historically tend to break for the Republican candidate. What this means is that we are likely to see Jim Tedisco take this seat back for the GOP -- dealing Barack Obama and the Democrats a setback. After all, this is the first special election in a district that is actually competitive, and it appears that Obama and the Democrats may lose it in the end.