After barely scraping out a win in the Arkansas Democrat Primary for Senate, Blanche Lincoln is still unlikely to remain the state's senator after the fall election, according to Public Policy Polling analysis of the data on the race.
It's nice for Blanche Lincoln that she won the runoff in Arkansas last night but I hope that no groups that care about getting Democratic Senators elected spend another dollar in the state this year. That doesn't have anything to do with her ideology- judging her worthwhileness there is not part of my job as a pollster- but there are just a boatload of races where Democrats have a better chance to win this fall and could use their resources more wisely.
There hasn't been a non-Research 2000 poll showing her down by anything less than 17 points to John Boozman in over three months. Our last survey of the race found her down by 23. Contests where we've found Democrats doing better than Lincoln since that poll include:
The wildcard, of course, remains Bill Clinton. Can his influence in the state where he was so popular for so long help her recover from this incredible popularity deficit? Seems questionable to me, unless he is going to be a full-time surrogate for Lincoln. But if he were that interested in campaigning for the spot, he could have re-established his Arkansas residency and run himself.