Hiring through the rest of 2012 will lag the brisk pace set early this year. But it will be strong enough to push the unemployment rate below 8 percent by Election Day.
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But the economists think the recovery will manage to reduce unemployment to 7.9 percent by Election Day from 8.2 percent in March.
Falling unemployment would boost President Barack Obama's prospects in November. Going back to 1956, no president has lost re-election when the unemployment rate dropped in the two years before the election. And none has won when the rate rose over that time.
The problem, of course, is that a 7.9 percent unemployment rate will still be 0.1 percent higher than it was when George W. Bush handed off the presidency to Barack Obama – and it is impossible to claim that the economy has been any better during Obama’s time in office than it was on Inauguration Day. Add to that the reality that a 7.9 percent unemployment rate will still be only 0.1 percent lower than the 8 percent number that Americans were promised was the maximum unemployment rate if Obama got his stimulus, these numbers make it clear that Obama is a failure as President.